A New World Since Lehman's Fall 雷曼破產兩週年 危機陰影難退

Two years after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed into bankruptcy, the impact of the financial crisis can be seen on almost every market around the globe.


在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)陷入破產保護的兩年後﹐這場金融危機的影響在全球各地的每個市場幾乎隨處可見。


The preference of investors for reliable income streams from bonds of all types has led to big rallies in both safe-haven U.S. Treasurys and risky 'junk' bonds, even amid a chorus of warnings about a 'bond bubble.'

投資者對債券這種可靠收入來源的青睞延伸至所有債券種類﹐不僅令素有安全避風港之稱的美國國債大幅飆升﹐就連高風險的“垃圾級”債券也隨之大漲﹐即便麵對如潮的“債券泡沫”警告聲。




But many stock markets, most notably in the U.S., haven't reclaimed losses suffered since Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains more than 900 points below its pre-Lehman level.

然而許多股市﹐尤其是美國股市﹐仍未從2008年9月15日雷曼申請破產保護之後的跌勢中恢復過來。道瓊斯工業平均指數目前仍較雷曼事件之前的水平低900點有餘。

U.S. financial stocks, at the epicenter of the crisis, remain nearly a third lower than where they were two years ago. And, since August 2008, investors around the world have pulled $203 billion out of developed-market stock funds, according to EPFR Global. That is 8.5% of the $2.4 trillion in developed-market stock funds at the time.

處於這場危機中心點的美國金融股依然較其兩年前的水平低近三分之一。據追蹤基金業的EPFR Global﹐自2008年8月以來﹐全球投資者從發達市場的股票基金中撤出了2030億美元。這相當於發達市場當時2.4萬億美元股市市值的8.5%。


Instead, investors are gravitating toward emerging markets. That isn't because they want to take on risk. Those economies, with lower debt levels and strong outlooks, are now seen as having taken on the role of driving global economic growth from the developed economies.

與此形成對照的是﹐投資者正被新興市場所吸引。這並非因為他們願意承擔風險。這些經濟體有著較低的負債水平﹐前景樂觀﹐目前被看作是取代發達經濟體承擔起了拉動全球經濟增長的作用。




At the same time, investors have bid up gold prices by 64% as they seek out insurance against another financial crisis and protection against the potential long-term inflationary impact of big budget deficits and super-low interest rates put in place to revive battered economies.

與此同時﹐投資者將金價推高了64%﹐因為他們尋求抵御另一場金融危機﹐以及為提振疲弱經濟而推行的大規模預算赤字和超低利率所可能產生的長期通脹影響。



Whether it is because of the sheer magnitude of the financial crisis, a lost decade for stock investors or the significant level of government intervention in the economy and financial markets, investors -- who usually have short memories -- continue to see Lehman's shadow.

不管是因為這場金融危機的強烈程度﹐還是對股市投資者來說失去的十年﹐抑或是政府干預經濟和金融市場的非同一般的力度﹐投資者──通常是健忘的──依然能看到雷曼的陰影。

'The failure of Lehman Brothers is still very much present,' says Jason DeSena Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. When it comes to investor psychology, he says, 'it's hard to overestimate its importance.'

市場研究機構Strategas Research Partners首席投資策略師特瑞納特(Jason DeSena Trennert)說﹐雷曼倒閉的影響當前依然存在。在對投資者心理的影響方面﹐他說﹐它的重要性怎麼說都不為過。



The stock market's current malaise contrasts with the aftermath of other crises. Two years after the 1987 market crash, the Dow was 400 points higher than it had been on the Friday before Black Monday, a gain of 20%.

股市當前的萎靡狀態與其他危機之後的情形形成了鮮明對照。在1987年市場發生崩盤的兩年後﹐道指比“黑色星期一”前的那個週五高出了400點﹐漲幅為20%。





Recently, there have been hints that investors are less enamored of bonds and tiptoeing back into stocks. The Dow has gained 4.5% this month to 10462.77, as a string of better-than-expected economic data has eased fears about a double-dip recession. The 10-year Treasury note has tumbled, pushing its yield up from 2.477% to 2.795%.

最近有跡象表明﹐投資者對債券不再那麼迷戀了﹐而是小心謹慎地重回股市。道指本月已上漲4.5%﹐至10462.77點﹐因為一系列好於預期的經濟數據緩解了對於二次探底式衰退的擔憂。10年期美國國債下跌﹐收益率從2.477%升至2.795%。


Given huge government efforts to prop up the economy following the financial crisis, it is harder than usual for investors to get a read on the economic outlook, says Erin Browne, global macro equity trader at Citigroup. That was evident in the collapse of U.S. home sales during June following the expiration of the homebuyers' tax credit.

花旗集團(Citigroup)全球宏觀股市交易員布朗尼(Erin Browne)說﹐鑒於政府在金融危機後大力刺激經濟的舉措﹐投資者現在要預測經濟前景﹐難度就比平時要大了。這從購房者的稅收抵免到期後美國住房銷售在6月份大幅下滑這一事例便可看出。


Usually the markets move in anticipation of the economy's ups and downs, but with the tremendous influence of economic- and monetary-policy stimulus, 'people are unwilling to buy [stocks] ahead of the data,' Ms. Browne says. Instead, 'they're in a 'prove it to me' state.'

布朗尼說﹐通常而言市場會根據對經濟走勢的預測而作出反應﹐但由於經濟和貨幣刺激政策的重大影響﹐人們不願在數據公佈前買進股票﹐而是處於一種先看後買的狀態。


The intervention efforts by governments and central banks to prop up economies crippled by the financial crisis have also had a direct impact on markets.

政府和央行為提振遭金融危機損害的經濟而實施的干預行為也對市場有著直接影響。



This can be seen in the U.S. mortgage-backed-securities and Treasury-debt markets, where the Federal Reserve has mopped up some $1.55 trillion of debt since March 2009. The Fed's purchases haven't only lifted prices of those bonds but also have driven traditional investors into other markets, helping fuel the rally in corporate bonds.

這一點從美國抵押貸款支持證券和國債市場中可以看出﹐自2009年3月以來美聯儲(Federal Reserve)已經在這裡“消化”了大約1.55萬億美元的債務。美聯儲購買債務的舉動不僅僅提高了這些債券的價格﹐還將傳統投資者引向其他市場﹐在一定程度上推高了公司債。



The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate bond index, formerly the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, has returned 15.8% since just before Lehman's fall. Treasury debt has returned 12.4% during that time, U.S. investment-grade bonds have returned 24.4%, and junk bonds have returned 31.1%, according to other Barclays credit indexes.

巴克萊資本美國綜合債券指數自雷曼倒閉前不久以來已實現15.8%的回報率。這一指數的前身是雷曼綜合債券指數。據其他巴克萊信貸指數﹐美國國債在此期間的回報率為12.4%﹐美國投資級債券和垃圾級債券的回報率分別為24.4%和31.1%。



In one largely unexpected effect of the crisis, investors have developed a taste for emerging-market debt. While usually seen as more risky, and thus not intuitively a go-to investment for jittery investors, emerging markets have been sought after for their promise of robust economic growth relative the U.S., Japan and Europe.

這場危機還帶來了一個多數人都意想不到的結果﹐那便是投資者對新興市場債券產生了興趣。儘管對神經緊張的投資者而言﹐新興市場往往被視為具有高風險、因而直覺上應該讓他們退避三舍﹐但由於其經濟增長前景相對美國、日本和歐洲來說更為樂觀﹐因此這些市場受到了投資者追捧。


Tom Lauricella / Mark Gongloff